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Could be a record U.S. corn and soybean crop if the finish is ideal

Could be a record U.S. corn and soybean crop if the finish is ideal

2022 U.S. Corn Belt Crop Tour by Risk Management forecast a record U.S. corn and soybean, weather permitting 


Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist with Risk Management, is forecasting a new record high for the final January 2023 USDA report of  53+ bushels per acre (52 – 54) for soybeans and 180+ (178-182) for corn!  

The prediction is based on a tour of 12 U.S. states from June 30th to July  23rd, 2022, sponsored by Case IH and Advanced Forecasting Corporation.

It's a tale of two areas,says Agostino, “east versus west”. 

The western corn belt (WCB) has been hotter and drier with 2 key problem spots: Kansas and Nebraska. Texas and Southern Missouri could also be included as problem areas.  A lack of moisture has made it too dry for too long, meaning corn production could fall as much as 300 to 500 milion bushels in this area. 

Compare that to the eastern corn belt (ECB)-- the garden spot – which is on pace to produce record production and more than offset the west. “In the ECB they had ‘carpet’ corn everywhere, tasselled and even in height.  Variability did not show up until Northern Indiana and Michigan,” explained Agostino.

Farmers may not know that both corn and soybean yields are the result of higher corn kernel and soybean pod weight and size at the end of the growing season Agostino says.

“Yes we need to plant these new racehorse hybrids early, get the plant polulation right and get through the reproduction stage with no issues,” says Agostino.  He cautions farmers that history has shown that since 1986, from August 1 to October 30th, a wet/cool finish can add as much as 6 bushels per acre to corn yields or subtract 8 bushels per acre. 

Agostino goes on to say “We can do a very good job of measuring corn and spoybean plant populations with crop tours, but tell me the weather forecast for the next 90 days and I will forecast the final yields with some great accruracy.” 

Advanced Forecasting Corporation’s weather forecast calls for a cool, wet season, even for the U.S. WCB. 

Accumulated Precipitation

Image courtesy Advanced Forecasting Corporation

Agostino cautions not to under estimate the power of some of the new genetics, farm management practices and technology. They are all contributing and allowng the farmer to produce more with less! Agostino says “we still have a long grain-fill period ahead of us, but the 2022 growing season will finish off well for some."

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