New survey shows lower confidence due to input costs and global conflict
Farmer confidence declined in April, according to the latest Purdue University CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The survey showed that overall farmer sentiment dropped compared to March mainly due to increasing concerns about current farm conditions and future risks.
The Current Conditions Index fell by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index decreased by 4 points. The index that measures current farm conditions saw a significant decline reflecting less confidence in the future based on the pressure farmers continue to face from high production expenses. Input costs (46 percent) remained the top concern for many producers while worries about the availability of supplies such as fertilizer also increased during the month.
Global developments played an important role in shaping farmer expectations. Many producers expected that ongoing international conflict affecting fertilizer and energy markets would negatively impact farm income in 2026. Higher fertilizer and natural gas prices have added uncertainty to already tight farm budgets.
According to the media release, “This month's survey included questions related to the impact of the Iran conflict on net farm income and corn breakeven prices in 2026. Approximately two-thirds of the respondents expected their net farm income to decline in 2026 due to the Iran conflict.”
The survey also showed weaker confidence about the broader economic and policy environment. Fewer farmers believed the country is moving in the right direction, and fewer expected farmland values to increase over the next five years. These shifts suggest lower optimism about long-term conditions in agriculture.
Despite these concerns, expectations were not equal across all sectors. Livestock producers remained more optimistic about future profitability than crop farmers, showing a clear difference in outlook within the agricultural industry.
Overall, the April survey reflects a cautious mood among farmers. While concerns about costs and supply availability remain high, uncertainty around global events and policy direction continues to weigh confidence across rural America.
Photo Credit: iran-negative-impact