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Food Prices Looking to the Sky

Desperate times facing Farmers in Midwestern US

By , Farms.com

Farmers across North America are looking out over their fields these days and are concerned that the plants are withering and dying because of the lack of rainfall. Weather experts are saying this is the worst drought in nearly 25 years and it is spreading across the Midwestern USA, a major grain producing area.  The hardest hit areas including - Southern Illinois and Indiana, farmers are cutting and baling the dead corn plants in an attempt to salvage some of the feed value for cattle and dairy cows.

The United States Department of Agriculture has released a series of reports that are predicting the corn and soybean crops will yield less grain then was anticipated earlier in the spring.  The reduced supply of corn and soybeans leads to increases in major agriculture commodity futures prices which are determined on the commodity exchanges.

“It is still too soon to predict how this drought will affect the price of food consumers pay.”  Richard Volpe, a USDA Food Markets Research Economist, pointed out, “The government has already predicted food prices will increase this year by as much as 3.5%.  It won’t be clear until the fall when all of the damage is known, how much the crop loss will add to that.”  A rule of thumb is that food prices typically climb about 1 percent for every 50 percent increase in average corn prices.”

The price of meat will likely see some of the largest increases because grain is used to feed livestock and is the major cost component to produce a pound of meat.  “When corn and soybean prices rise, eventually the price of meat must increase, “says beef producer Amanda Brodhagen.

Corn is widely used as a food ingredient in products such as the sweetener in soft drinks, cereals, corn starch and in sauces but it only accounts for a small percentage of the cost to produce such products.

In the meantime, farmers will be looking skyward in the hopes that rain will quench the thirst of their dying crops.


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Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
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Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.