Ahead of the growing season, economists offered farmers their expectations for prices, profit and demand in 2026 and beyond
The Illinois Soybean Association hosted a webinar, “Tight Margins and Volatile Markets: Strategies in Chaotic Markets,” Feb. 17 featuring Joe Janzen, associate professor at the University of Illinois, and Darin Newsom, Barchart senior market analyst.
Janzen said projections for 2026 show a slight profit because of ARC and Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, but in 2027 he projected losses.
Financial pressure depends on the operation’s size. Farms on the top have more than sufficient capital, the median-sized operations are eating into capital in a more significant way and the bottom 25% of farms are in a difficult situation, he said.
These farms are taking on debt.
“The biggest increases we see relative to where we were in the pre-2020 period with low margins, we see the overhead cost which is higher debt cost,” Janzen said. “The biggest increases come in that high inflation period of 2021 and 2022.”
They are expecting a slight uptick in per-acre production costs relative to 2025 on 50-50 rotation corn and soybeans in central Illinois, he said.
There are still sufficient returns to cover underlying costs, but higher operating costs equal a higher projected breakeven, which was around $4.58 for corn and $10.62 for beans in 2025, he said. Price projections are $4.25 for corn and $10.40 for soybeans.
In 2026 fertilizer prices are expected to be higher than the year before, but there could be some modest relief on the land cost side, Janzen said.
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