Ag Commodity Corner podcast unpacks USDA November crop report and the chaos in cattle markets
On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ podcast, Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal reviewed markets for the week of November 10 to 14.
Agostino and Gopal focused on the disappointing USDA November crop report (released Thursday, November 13), grain prices, cattle market turmoil, new trade headlines and wider financial markets.
The hosts said the USDA report, delayed by a government shutdown, did not match what many farmers expected. Corn yield was set above trade estimates and U.S. wheat ending stocks increased.
Agostino and Gopal called the numbers neutral to bearish for corn and soybeans and very bearish for wheat, noting that recent bullish chart momentum in grains has weakened.
South American crop estimates were nudged higher, adding to the sense of comfortable global supplies. The team cautioned that, until stronger demand appears in export sales, grain markets may retest recent lows. Recent soybean sales to China were encouraging but still not strong enough to shift overall sentiment.
Livestock producers may gain from slightly cheaper feed, but cattle markets faced their own chaos. Live and feeder cattle futures have been sliding, with prices testing key support at the 200-day moving averages. Agostino suggested that packers now hold the advantage while cash and futures move lower, yet he believes tight supplies will eventually provide support once new Cattle on Feed reports confirm the situation.
They also discussed U.S. plans to lower some tariffs on food imports from Latin American partners, moves that could affect prices for coffee, bananas and beef, and keep fund traders cautious in livestock.
In the broader financial markets, a selloff in major technology stocks sparked questions about whether the artificial intelligence rally has gone too far. Despite criticism from high-profile investors, the hosts see recent corrections in leading chip makers such as Nvidia and AMD as short-term noise inside a longer-term growth story.
Finally, Agostino and Gopal highlighted serious global weather concerns, including a multi-year drought in Iran that is straining water supplies and could displace millions. Agostino warned that North America is not immune and pointed to historical drought cycles that may affect future growing seasons ahead.
For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit things; Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.
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