Crop tour findings raise questions about U.S. corn production and tighten supply expectations.
Grain markets ended the week on August 21, 2026, with a strong tone as traders assessed the latest Pro Farmer Crop Tour results, crop damage concerns across the U.S. Midwest, improving demand prospects and growing fund interest from speculative traders.
During the August 21 Farms.com Risk Management Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast, titled, "Pro Farmer 2026 U.S. Corn Yield Estimate at 173.2 BPA Still Too High?" hosted by Abhinesh Gopal, head of commodity research, with chief commodity strategist Moe Agostino, the two commodity experts discussed their observations from crop tours in the United States and Canada.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the 2026 U.S. corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, below the USDA’s 180.7-bushel estimate. Its soybean projection was 53.3 bushels per acre, compared with the USDA’s 52.7 bushels.
Gopal and Agostino questioned whether the corn estimate was still too optimistic, citing excessive rainfall, storms, hail and limited sunshine in several key growing areas.
Indiana was highlighted as a major concern, with severe weather and excessive moisture affecting crops. The two experts also pointed to reduced sun, Growing Degree Days, and potential yield losses in Illinois. Conditions in parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Texas, and Kansas were described as hot and dry.
Based on the Pro Farmer corn estimate, the U.S. corn balance sheet could tighten substantially, potentially pushing the stocks-to-use ratio toward 6 percent.
Ontario presented a different picture during Agostino’s two-week crop tour across the province as part of the 2026 Great Ontario Yield Tour. Agostino reported strong crop potential after reviewing corn and soybean fields across Ontario during the 2026 Great Ontario Yield Tour.
He is predicting Eastern Ontario corn will exceed 200 bushels per acre, while soybean yields are also approaching record levels. However, disease pressure in soybeans and hot/dry regions remained concerns in some areas.
As always, weather will remain a major market driver in the weeks ahead, with parts of the Ohio Valley experiencing exceptionally wet August conditions. The podcast noted that prolonged saturation in the field could damage yields, particularly when fields remain excessively wet for extended periods.
Demand provided another supportive factor. U.S. soybean sales were advancing toward a 25-million-metric-ton Chinese commitment target, while potential Chinese purchases of soybeans and corn could strengthen the market further. Expectations for additional export business added to the bullish tone.
At the same time, large fund purchases were evident across the grain and oilseed complex, increasing speculative exposure for agricultural commodities.
Cattle markets remained under pressure throughout the week.
Agostino and Gopal also say that technical signals turned constructive. December corn futures moved above key resistance at $5.045, with higher technical targets discussed during the podcast. The combination of potentially lower U.S. yields, strong demand and increased fund buying could create additional upside pressure as traders await upcoming USDA reports.
Watch the Pro Farmer 2026 U.S. Corn Yield Estimate at 173.2 BPA Still Too High? podcast below.
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