Ground beef prices fell just 2% after the tariff-rate quota expansion, highlighting ongoing challenges in the U.S. cattle and beef markets.
A recent expansion of the U.S. tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for lean beef trimmings has so far produced little change in grocery-store prices for ground beef, according to analysis by American Farm Bureau Federation economists Bernt Nelson and Faith Parum, Ph.D.
In late August, the administration issued a proclamation temporarily increasing the TRQ for lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons, or roughly 661 million pounds.
Beef imported under the lower tariff rate began entering the United States on September 1, 2026. The proclamation encouraged grocery retailers to reduce beef prices by 25%, but it did not require stores to make the reduction or establish an enforcement mechanism.
To examine whether the additional supply affected consumers, the American Farm Bureau Federation tracked the daily prices of 80% lean ground beef at 41 grocery stores in 22 states beginning September 2, 2026. The stores included both major chains and independent retailers in urban, suburban, and rural communities.
The results showed only a modest change. The average price fell from $7.29 per pound on September 2 to $7.13 on September 23, a decrease of 16 cents, or about 2%. During the three-week period, the average price remained between $7.13 and $7.38.
Individual prices varied considerably. Across the stores surveyed, prices ranged from $4.99 to $10.49 per pound, with a typical price of about $7.23. Twenty-two of the 41 stores charged more than $7 per pound.
Four locations in Denver, Glen Head, New York, New York City and Porterville, California reported prices near $9 or higher.
Thirty stores ended the period at the same price recorded on September 2. Seven stores had lower prices, but only three achieved the 25% reduction encouraged by the proclamation. Meanwhile, prices increased in four locations, including Des Moines and Davenport, Iowa, East Lansing, Michigan, and Denver.
Nelson and Parum noted that lowering the tariff-related cost of imported beef does not automatically translate into lower supermarket prices. Retail prices reflect numerous expenses throughout the supply chain, including cattle, processing, transportation, labor, and retail margins.
The findings also highlight a broader challenge facing the U.S. cattle industry. Domestic cattle supplies remain constrained, with the U.S. calf crop projected at a record-low 32.5 million head. Industry analysts argue that rebuilding the domestic herd and increasing U.S. beef production will be important for improving long-term supply and price stability.
Photo Credit: american-farm-bureau-federation