U.S. farmers face record crops trade struggles
The USDA recently projected record corn production of 16.7 billion bushels with yields above 188 bushels per acre, alongside strong soybean yields of nearly 54 bushels per acre. However, these abundant harvests come with challenges, as producers struggle to find profitable markets amid ongoing trade conflicts.
For nearly six decades, the US enjoyed an agricultural trade surplus, but that shifted in 2019 during tariff disputes. In the first half of 2025, the agricultural trade deficit hit $29 billion, the highest on record. Exports to China have fallen sharply, with soybean sales at a 20-year low. As of late July, China had not purchased a single US soybean cargo, marking the latest buying delay since 2005.
While crop farmers face weaker markets, livestock producers are seeing reduced supplies. USDA forecasts beef production to fall nearly 4% in 2025, with pork output also expected to decline. This drop could mean higher meat prices for consumers.
Rural America remains a vital part of the country, with 97% of the land considered rural and 20% of Americans living there. SNAP food assistance supports about 16% of rural residents, compared to 11% in metro areas.
Farmers face additional pressures as tariffs drive up costs of inputs like fertilizer and equipment, while grain prices decline. With tariffs now averaging 15.2%—the highest since World War II—uncertainty continues. Professor Gary Schnitkey from the University of Illinois advises farmers to prepare for low returns over the next several years.
"The farmer has to be an optimist or he wouldn’t still be a farmer," said Will Rogers.
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