Exports are expected to rise significantly
The 2024-2025 crop year for Canadian corn is projected to see a slight reduction in total supply, estimated at 19.3 million tonnes (Mt), down 3% from the previous year. This decrease is primarily attributed to lower imports, though carry-in stocks and production levels remain relatively stable.
Despite the lower supply, exports are expected to rise significantly, with projections of 2.7 Mt, driven largely by demand from Ireland, the United Kingdom, and Spain.
Domestic demand for corn is forecasted at 15.0 Mt, a 6% decline compared to the previous year, mainly due to lower feed, food, and industrial use. The price of Canadian corn is expected to average $225 per tonne, a modest increase from the previous year but still significantly below the five-year average.
For 2025-26, Canadian corn acreage is set to increase by 3% to a projected 1.5 million hectares (Mha), making it the second-highest planted area on record. Production is expected to decrease slightly to 15.1 Mt due to anticipated returns to trend yields. Despite the larger area, total supply is expected to drop by 3%, reflecting reduced carry-in stocks.
Carry-out stocks are forecasted at 1.7 Mt, slightly higher than 2024-2025 but still well below the five-year average.
The average price for 2025-26 is projected to decline to $215 per tonne, primarily due to the downward pressure from U.S. corn prices.
Globally, corn production is projected to reach a record high of 1,265 Mt in 2025-26, driven by increases in the U.S., Ukraine, Argentina, and Brazil. Despite this, global corn consumption will outpace production, leading to lower global corn ending stocks.
This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, which run from September1 to August 31 for corn. AAFC notes that the projections are based on market conditions and trade policies in effect as of May 13, 2025.
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