CFIB survey highlights steady confidence amid ongoing challenges
Canada’s small business confidence continued to recover in December, based on the latest Business Barometer released by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. Long-term confidence increased to 59.9, marking a notable rise from November and nearing the historical average.
“December’s numbers are encouraging, but they don’t tell the full story,” said Simon Gaudreault, CFIB chief economist and vice-president of research. “While confidence is getting back to its historical average, more than half of businesses are continuing to report insufficient demand as the top growth constraint. That’s a clear signal that the economy is still fragile heading into 2026.”
While the improvement is encouraging, challenges remain widespread. Insufficient demand continues to be the top growth barrier, reported by more than half of all businesses. This signals that economic recovery remains uneven as businesses prepare for 2026.
“Business owners have told us that 2025 has been a real rollercoaster. It’s been both challenging and unpredictable,” said Andreea Bourgeois, CFIB director of economics. “Even with some positive signs overall, concerns about demand, costs and staffing continue to weigh heavily as ongoing trade uncertainty makes it hard to plan ahead.”
Regional results showed stronger confidence in British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta, each posting long-term confidence readings of 60 or higher. Quebec, however, experienced a decline, with confidence falling to 50, making it the weakest-performing province. Short-term confidence remained subdued nationwide. Industry trends were mixed.
Cost pressures remained a major concern. Tax and regulatory expenses were the most common cost constraint, followed closely by wage and insurance costs. Price increase intentions remained stable at 2.6%, while planned wage increases averaged 2.2%.
Labor conditions showed continued caution. A higher percentage of businesses planned to reduce full-time staff than to hire, reflecting concerns about costs and future demand.
In summary, December’s data shows gradual improvement in confidence, but demand weakness, cost pressures, and staffing challenges continue to shape cautious business planning, including agri-business planning, across Canada.
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