Renewable diesel reshapes soybean oil market value dynamics
The renewable diesel boom has reshaped the U.S. soybean industry by boosting demand for soybean oil, a major feedstock in bio-based diesel production. Recent research highlights that rising oil demand has altered the traditional balance within the soybean crush, where processors extract both oil and meal from soybeans.
Over the past five years, U.S. soybean processors have improved efficiency, extracting more oil per bushel. This has helped meet growing renewable diesel demand, even as new crushing capacity faced delays. At the same time, soybean oil prices have surged and become more volatile compared to soybean meal, marking a major shift from earlier periods of price stability.
Data from 2007 to 2025 show soybean oil prices tripled during the initial years of the renewable diesel expansion, while soybean and meal prices rose at a slower pace. Consequently, oil’s share of total crush value jumped from roughly 30% before 2020 to as high as 50% in recent years. This increase reflects changing market fundamentals, as meal values fell and oil gained prominence.
Crush margins—the value difference between soybean outputs and raw soybeans—also became more volatile, reaching levels not seen since 2015. Analysts note that the correlation between soybean, oil, and meal prices has weakened since 2020, signaling a breakdown in traditional price relationships.
Researchers suggest that as biofuel production continues to grow, the soybean industry must adapt to a “new normal” of higher volatility and uncertain pricing. “These shifts make future price movements harder to predict,” the authors noted, emphasizing the role of renewable fuel policy in shaping market stability.
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