Forecasts show easing cattle prices in 2026 as supplies rise again
Beef producers across the United States enjoyed strong profitability in 2025, supported by high demand and limited supplies. However, market analysts suggest that the industry may have reached its peak price cycle this past fall. Looking ahead, forecasts indicate that producers should prepare for a softer market in 2026 as several key factors shift within the livestock sector.
According to expert analysis presented at Beef Industry University, supported by the Farm Credit Associations of Kansas, a more moderate year is expected for the beef market. The outlook is based on the assumption that the Mexican border will reopen in early 2026, tariffs will return to normal levels, and domestic cattle supplies will begin increasing between 2026 and 2027.
Market projections for early 2026 show calf prices ranging from $350 per hundredweight to $425 per hundredweight. Feeder cattle prices are expected to average between $300 and $340 per hundredweight. Fed cattle may begin the year trading between $220 and $240 per hundredweight. However, as herd expansion begins, prices may soften to between $200 and $220 per hundredweight during the second half of the year.
Even with the expected decrease, analysts note that producers should not view the trend as negative. Many operations are still likely to remain profitable.“Profitability is still going to be there, and it’s still the right time to think about expansion,” said Kevin Good CattleFax Vice President of Industry Relations and Analysis. “But we have to recognize the lower trend.”
The gradual rebuilding of the national herd is a key part of the broader economic outlook. Higher cattle numbers typically lead to more beef on the market, which naturally lowers prices. For producers, the challenge will be planning carefully while adapting to changing price levels.
Overall, the transition into 2026 may signal the beginning of a new cycle. While prices may ease from recent highs, opportunities for long-term growth remain strong for producers who plan ahead and monitor market conditions closely.
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