Farms.com Home   Ag Industry News

U.S. could fall to No. 2 in global soybean production

U.S. could fall to No. 2 in global soybean production

Brazil may overtake the U.S., a USDA report says

By Diego Flammini
Staff Writer
Farms.com

The U.S. may not be the world’s leader in soybean production by year’s end.

“Brazil is forecast to overtake the United States as the leading soybean producer in the world during the 2019-20 season,” a Dec. 27 report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said. “Production is forecast at 123.5 million metric tons (MMT) based on trend yields.”

The U.S. yield, on the other hand, is forecast to be “less than 100 MMT in 2019-20, a drop of almost 20 percent on the previous season,” the report says.

Even with Brazil’s forecasted production, soybean prices may not be affected.

Prices could fall “but it depends on demand,” said Moe Agostino, chief commodity strategist with Farms.com Risk Management. “But, really, it could just be that Brazil gains export market share as (that country’s production) continues to grow.”

In August 2019, the USDA forecasted global soybean demand for the 2019-20 marketing year at 148.86 MMT, a 1 percent increase from 2018.

America has been the world’s top soybean-producing country since around the time of the Second World War. U.S. farmers doubled their production between 1941 and 1942 from 106 to 188 million bushels to support the war efforts, the Soy Info Center says.

The U.S. has led the world in soybean production every year since 1940. The one exception was 1947, when China produced the most soybeans.

Today, the U.S., Brazil and Argentina account for about 82 percent of global soybean production.


Trending Video

US “Flash Drought” Worst in 133-160 Years + Disease taking a Bite out of US 2025 Corn/Soybean Crops

Video: US “Flash Drought” Worst in 133-160 Years + Disease taking a Bite out of US 2025 Corn/Soybean Crops


A dry August and a “flash drought” in the ECB (Eastern Corn Belt) the driest top 10 to 15 years in 150 to 160 years (Ohio the driest in 133 years) plus disease is taking a bite out of the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops.
It's going to be an early harvest. This could be the start of the 89-year drought cycle that may have been delayed until 2026 as La Nina maybe returning.
The USDA September crop report is all about record corn ears and record soybean counts but the October USDA crop report will be about pod and ear weights.
Stats Canada reported higher forecasts for the 2025 Canadian Prairies all wheat and canola crops vs. last year based on satellite imagery but are they overestimating production?
The 2025 Great ON Yield Tour and Quebec crop tours are projecting corn and soybean crops below the 10-year average.
China's Vice Commerce Ministry Li Chenggang visits Washington this week as we continue to connect the dots is a positive sign towards a China/U.S. trade deal. But will U.S. farmers have a winter without China as they buy more soybeans from Uruguay/Argentina? U.S. Northern Plain soybean farmers are seeing red with flat prices at $8.97/bu!
U.S. corn exports on record pace up 99% vs. last year.
Fund short covering continues in corn futures bottom is in!