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Deere Not Out of the Woods Yet. Here's Why the Stock is Falling Today.

Key Takeaways

  • Deere & Company is warning that tough market conditions, partially attributable to tariffs, will continue into next year.
  • The manufacturer of big farm and construction equipment gave a full-year outlook below forecasts.
  • The news offset better-than-expected profit and sales figures for the fiscal fourth quarter.

Shares of Deere & Company (DE) fell Wednesday morning after the maker of large farm and construction equipment gave a weak forecast and warned that “difficult market conditions” will continue for a while longer.

In the company’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, CEO John May said “ongoing margin pressures from tariffs and persistent challenges in the large ag sector remain.” He added that Deere believes “ 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle.”

The company predicts next year’s net income will be in a range of $4.00 billion to $4.75 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for $5.19 billion.

The outlook offset a strong fourth quarter. Deere reported earnings per share of $3.93, with revenue up 11% to $12.39 billion. Both exceeded the Visible Alpha estimates.

The Production & Precision Agriculture division posted a sales gain of 10% to $4.74 billion. Sales grew 7% to $2.46 billion at the Small Agriculture & Turf unit, and they soared 27% to $3.38 billion at the Construction & Forestry segment.

However, for fiscal 2026 Deere sees Production & Precision Agriculture sales falling 5% to 10%. They expect them to rise about 10% at both Small Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry.

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Federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald speaks with reporters in Ottawa following the launch of public consultations on the government’s next agricultural policy framework.

Also speaking are Sophie Chatel (parliamentary secretary to the agriculture minister), Yasir Naqvi (MP for Ottawa Centre), Kerry-Leigh Burchill (director general of the Canada Agriculture and Food Museum), and Keith Currie (president of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture).