Improved yields and acreage boost soybean supplies while global oilseed demand remains strong
The latest crop outlook points to a stronger year ahead for U.S. soybean farmers as production forecasts continue to improve. Small increases in both soybean yields and harvested acreage have resulted in a larger crop, helping expand supplies and support export opportunities.
The national average soybean yield for the 2026/27 marketing year is now estimated at 52.8 bushels per acre, slightly above the previous forecast. At the same time, soybean planted acreage has increased to 86.9 million acres, while harvested acreage is expected to reach 85.9 million acres.
These changes have pushed total U.S. soybean production higher. Production is now forecast at approximately 4.5 billion bushels, reflecting a gain in available supplies compared to earlier expectations.
With additional soybeans available, export prospects have also improved. U.S. soybean exports are expected to reach 1.69 billion bushels during the 2026/27 marketing year. The increase reflects continued global demand for soybeans and soybean products.
The domestic soybean crush forecast remains unchanged at 2.78 billion bushels. Crushing soybeans produces soybean meals and soybean oil, which are important products used in animal feed, food manufacturing, and renewable fuel production.
Even with larger supplies, soybean ending stocks are expected to decline slightly from previous forecasts. Ending stocks are now projected at 310 million bushels. This reduction is largely linked to stronger export demand, which is drawing more soybeans into the market.
The outlook has also improved farmers from a pricing perspective. The season-average soybean price forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year has increased to $12.00 per bushel. Higher prices can provide additional opportunities for growers, especially when combined with strong demand from domestic and international buyers.
Beyond soybeans, the global oilseed market is also showing signs of strength. Production forecasts for rapeseed and sunflower seed have increased, adding more supplies to the world market.
Global rapeseed production is now expected to approach 100 million metric tons. Sunflowerseed production is forecast at 63.7 million metric tons. These increases are helping meet growing demand from food processors, biofuel producers, and other industries that rely on vegetable oils.
Strong demand is encouraging higher processing activity as well. Global rapeseed crushing forecasts have been increased for both the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years. Much of this growth is being driven by increased processing in the European Union, Bangladesh, and Canada.
Sunflowerseed crushing is also expected to rise. Higher processing levels indicate that demand for vegetable oils remains strong across many regions of the world.
The larger rapeseed and sunflowerseed crops are expected to increase supplies of rapeseed oil and sunflowerseed oil during the 2026/27 marketing year. These additional supplies are helping offset concerns in other vegetable oil markets.
One area facing challenges is Indonesia’s palm oil sector. Palm oil production forecasts have been lowered because of slightly weaker yield expectations. Production is now expected to reach 47.2 million metric tons.
Despite the lower palm oil outlook, global vegetable oil supplies remain supported by stronger production of rapeseed and sunflowerseed. This balance helps maintain stability in the broader oilseed market.
Overall, the latest forecasts highlight a positive outlook for the soybean sector. Increased production, solid export demand, stable processing activity, and supportive prices are creating favorable conditions for U.S. growers. Meanwhile, strong global demand for vegetable oils continues to drive growth across major oilseed markets, reinforcing the importance of soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed in the world agricultural economy.
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