Nutrien's Eric Snodgrass warns of continued weather risks through August with Wildfire Smoke, Derecho Risk and Heat!
Wildfire smoke, potential derecho-producing storms and persistent heat remain the dominant weather concerns across North America as the growing season enters a critical stretch, according to Nutrien's latest Weekly Weather Intelligence Report from meteorologist Eric Snodgrass.
While recent rainfall has provided relief in some areas, as he has most of the summer, Snodgrass cautions that precipitation remains highly uneven, leaving many production regions vulnerable to continued drought stress as crops move toward maturity.
Smoke Continues to Affect Crop Growth
The most significant weather story remains widespread wildfire smoke generated by ongoing fires across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and California.
According to Snodgrass, smoke plumes are extending across much of the United States, affecting both near-surface air quality and the amount of sunlight reaching crops.
The issue comes as many growers are already managing stress from fluctuating moisture conditions and high temperatures.
Severe Storm Threat Increasing
Attention is also turning toward the potential for organized severe weather events across portions of the U.S. Midwest and Northern Plains.
Recent storm systems brought damaging winds and hail to Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, while additional severe weather developed from Kansas into New Mexico.
Snodgrass noted that current atmospheric conditions favor the development of bowing mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and potentially derechos, large wind-producing storm complexes capable of causing widespread crop and infrastructure damage.
The area of greatest concern generally stretches from the Dakotas through the Ohio Valley, a corridor historically prone to these types of late-summer severe weather outbreaks.
Today also marks the six-year anniversary of the devastating August 10, 2020 Midwest derecho, a reminder of how quickly organized storm systems can impact agricultural regions.
Rainfall Remains Highly Variable
Although weather maps may appear promising, Snodgrass emphasized that rainfall totals should be viewed cautiously.
Recent precipitation events delivered substantial moisture to parts of Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois, but neighbouring areas received little or no rain.
"Use the models for the corridor, not the amounts," Snodgrass advised.
Forecast models continue to identify a corridor of improved precipitation stretching from Colorado and Nebraska into parts of South Dakota, southern Iowa and regions farther east.
However, individual rainfall totals remain highly uncertain and will depend on the location and organization of storm systems.
For farmers, the reality remains one of "haves and have-nots," where fields only a few miles apart can experience dramatically different moisture conditions.
Heat Stress Continues Across Southern Production Areas
Another growing concern is the persistence of warm overnight temperatures.
Lows remaining in the 70s across large portions of the southern United States are limiting nighttime recovery for crops.
Corn, soybeans and other summer crops rely on cooler overnight conditions to reduce plant stress and conserve energy. When temperatures remain elevated around the clock, crop development can suffer, especially when combined with limited soil moisture.
Heat advisories remain in place across portions of Kansas, Missouri and much of the southern U.S., while temperatures are expected to remain significantly cooler across northern and eastern regions later this week.
Snodgrass said the Southern Plains are likely to experience continued crop stress through much of August.
Canadian Prairies Could See Wetter Conditions
For Western Canada, the outlook becomes somewhat more encouraging later in the forecast period.
Weather models suggest increased precipitation potential across portions of the Canadian Prairies during the eight-to-14-day timeframe.
While confidence in exact rainfall amounts remains low, the pattern shift could help improve moisture conditions in areas that have experienced dry weather.
At the same time, forecasters expect a gradually shifting weather pattern that may bring somewhat more variable conditions across Western Canada heading toward late August.
El Niño Accelerating
Looking beyond the next two weeks, Snodgrass highlighted concerns about rapidly developing El Niño conditions.
Global ocean temperatures remain exceptionally warm, and forecast models indicate El Niño could reach historically strong levels before reaching its seasonal peak.
The evolving pattern is already influencing global weather systems and may contribute to a wetter harvest season across large portions of North America later this year.
Current long-range forecasts suggest a wetter-than-normal harvest window across much of the United States, while parts of the Pacific Northwest may remain relatively dry.
Hurricane Activity Still Limited
Despite exceptionally warm ocean temperatures, tropical development remains surprisingly subdued.
Snodgrass noted that atmospheric wind shear remains too strong to support widespread tropical cyclone development across the Atlantic basin through at least mid-September.
As a result, there is currently little indication that tropical systems will provide drought-relieving rainfall to portions of the Southern Plains.
Looking Ahead
As crops enter critical late-season growth stages, farmers will be watching three key weather factors closely: wildfire smoke impacts on photosynthesis, the potential for damaging severe storm outbreaks, and ongoing heat stress across southern growing regions.
While rainfall opportunities exist in parts of the central continent and Canadian Prairies, Snodgrass cautions growers to focus on broad precipitation trends rather than specific rainfall totals.
"The severe threat this week is about organization, not coverage," he noted, emphasizing that a few well-organized storm systems could have a much greater impact than widespread but weaker rainfall events.
Watch the video analysis below.