Has the tide turned? The last three years have been good for Canadian crop producers: rising prices and strong margins have been hallmarks of the 2020s. But as margins are pressured by falling commodity prices, weather-impacted yields, and rising expenses, the 2023-24 crop year likely won’t be as positive. Our July outlook identified global stocks levels, input costs, weather and geopolitical turmoil as profitability-related factors to monitor throughout the summer. With most crops in bins, we forecast their various impacts on margins for the year ahead.
As prices fall, drought takes another bite out of Canadian production
Throughout the 2022-2023 marketing year (MY), average prices for canola and spring wheat fell year-over-year (YoY), while prices for the other major field crops continued to rise (Table 1). In the three months since our July outlook, they have generally outperformed our forecast. Corn and canola prices have fallen since then but are still above their five-year averages.
The new crop prices also remain above their five-year averages, but most will fall YoY. Only feed barley, durum and spring wheat are expected to improve over the outlook period.
Click here to see more...