According to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), North American retail sales for agricultural equipment saw significant declines in January, particularly in larger tractor segments and combines.
- Sales of 100HP+ tractors were down 25% year-over-year (YoY), with 1,266 units sold. The decline was more pronounced in the U.S., where sales dropped 27% YoY, compared to a 13% YoY decrease in Canada. Meanwhile, 4WD tractor sales fell 41% YoY to 160 units, with the U.S. seeing a 55% YoY drop, while Canada declined 20% YoY. In total, 2WD tractor sales across North America were down 14% YoY, with the <40HP category down 10% YoY and 40-100HP tractors down 16% YoY.
- The downturn was even steeper for combines, with North American sales plummeting 80% YoY to just 118 units in January. U.S. combine sales fell 79% YoY, while Canadian sales were down 83% YoY.
- Inventory trends also shifted YoY, with the inventory-to-sales ratio for 100HP+ tractors increasing to 5.6 months, while the same metric for combines declined to 1.6 months. Total 100HP+ tractor inventories in North America fell 1% YoY, driven by a 3% YoY decline in the U.S., while Canada saw an 8% increase. In contrast, combine inventories were down 40% YoY, with a 44% decline in the U.S. and a 26% drop in Canada.
- Looking ahead, industry forecasts suggest continued pressure on large ag equipment sales throughout 2025. AGCO anticipates a ~25% decline in North American large ag equipment sales, while CNH projects high-horsepower tractor sales to drop 25-30% and combine sales to decline 20-25%. Deere forecasts a ~30% drop for large ag equipment and ~10% decline for small ag and turf machinery in the U.S. and Canada for FY25.
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