Agriculture Canada held most of its 2025-26 grain and oilseed supply-demand estimates unchanged from last month, although it is more downbeat on prices.
Released Friday, Ag Canada’s October supply-demand update left projected 2025-26 canola ending stocks steady from September at 2.5 million tonnes, up more than 900,000 from the previous year. However, the government’s average price forecast was dropped $30/tonne from last month to $645 (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver). That is down 5% from the previous year’s average of $677 and 17% below the five-year average.
Over the past decade, the highest canola price of $1,075 was set in the drought year of 2021-22, while the lowest was $484, set in 2019-20. Canadian canola prices slumped in 2019–20 primarily due to China's restrictions on imports, including revoking licenses for two major exporters, which created market uncertainty and reduced demand.
Canadian canola prices this year are once again being impacted by Chinese import restrictions, with Beijing implementing anti-dumping duties of nearly 76% back in August. China also slapped 100% tariffs on imports of Canadian canola meal and oil earlier this year.
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