Alberta Harvest Underway as Major Crop Yield Estimates Creep Higher

Aug 19, 2025

The harvest is underway across Alberta, with major crop yield estimates rising from two weeks ago.

Friday’s weekly crop report showed the overall harvest at 2% complete as of Tuesday, in line with the province’s five- and 10-year averages of 3%. The South Region leads activity with 6% of crops off, followed by the Peace Region at 2%. The Central, North West, and North East regions remain in the very early stages, with less than 1% combined.

Progress is most notable for pulses and fall cereals, though harvest of major crops is expected to accelerate in the coming weeks. Broadleaf crops are at 94% podding, 4 percentage points ahead of the five-year average, while spring cereals have advanced to the dough development stage. Fall-seeded crops are beginning to ripen. Warm temperatures and timely rainfall in parts of the province have helped maintain strong development, the report said.

The report pegged the provincewide yield potential of major crops (spring wheat, oats, barley, canola, and dry peas) at about 15% above the five-year average as of Tuesday, up from 14% above two weeks earlier.

At 49.4 bu/acre, the average expected Alberta spring wheat yield is little changed from 49 bu last year, while the average barley yield, at 66 bu/acre, is seen higher than last year’s 60.6 bu average. This year’s average expected dry pea yield of 42.7 bu/acre is also seen above 35.4 bu a year ago. On the other hand, the average oat yield of 69.5 bu/acre is projected down from 73.3 bu in 2024, and the average canola yield of 38.9 bu/acre is expected slightly below the previous year’s 39.1 bu.

The Central Region continues to report the highest expected dryland yields relative to its five-year average, with projections 37% above. The South Region follows at 29% above average, and the North West Region at 10% above the five-year average. However, the Peace and North East regions continue to report projected yields below their respective five-year averages for the second week, at 8% and 1% below average.

Rainfall over the past week has boosted soil moisture and eased crop stress in parts of the province, with gains in the South and Central Regions offsetting deficits elsewhere and keeping provincial surface soil moisture ratings steady at 61% good to excellent, though some areas may still see yield impacts from low moisture.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.