Canadian all wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are seen swelling to a more than one decade high after farmers harvested a much larger crop than previously expected.
Monthly supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada on Wednesday pegged national all wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year at 7.5 million tonnes, up a hefty 2.4 million from the government’s November projection and more than 82% above 4.112 million a year earlier. If accurate, it would be the largest all wheat ending stocks level since the 2013-14 crop year at just under 10.4 million.
The increase in the ending stocks estimate from last month reflects Statistics Canada’s Dec. 4 crop production report which raised the federal agency’s all wheat production estimate to a new high of 39.955 million tonnes, up from the September model-based projection of 36.624 million and 11.2% above the previous year.
With the bigger crop, the total 2025-26 all wheat supply is now estimated at 44.172 million tonnes, up from 40.841 million in November and 41.302 million in 2024-25.
Meanwhile, increases on the demand side fell well short of offsetting the larger supply. Ag Canada raised its 2025-26 all wheat export forecast to 28.35 million tonnes, up from from 27.7 million last month but still below the previous year’s 29.22 million. Domestic use, at 8.322 million tonnes, increased marginally from 8.041 million in November and 7.969 million a year earlier.
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