This report is an update of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) August outlook report for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, based on available information up to September 19, 2025. The report incorporates revised supply and demand data from Statistics Canada for the 2024-25 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. Uncertainty in the world’s grain markets remains elevated due to ongoing geopolitical risks.
For the 2024-2025 crop year, the report provides the final estimates for all crops, with the exception of corn and soybeans, where estimates remain preliminary, incorporating information from Statistics Canada’s (STC) September 9, 2025, report on Stocks of Principal Field Crops as of July 31, 2025. Stocks of principal field crops were 18% below 2023 levels and 13% less than the previous five-year average. For most field crops, the decline in stocks was the result of an increase in exports, which more than offset the rise in production following the return to normal moisture levels across the major growing regions of the country. A significant drawdown in canola stocks accounted for most of the overall decline, as stronger canola exports combined with increased domestic crushing and slightly lower output in 2024. Total domestic use fell slightly, with the decline moderated by a rise in canola crushing. Prices for most principal field crops were significantly lower due to pressure from lower world crop prices.
For 2025-2026, the outlook incorporates crop production estimates from STC’s September 17, 2025, Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates release, which were based on information as of the end of August 31, 2025, using remote sensing data from STC’s Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP), which utilized agroclimatic data, as well as survey data and other sources. Production of all principal field crops estimated to be a near record, up 3% year-over-year (y/y) and 8% higher than the previous five-year average. Production of total grains and oilseeds is expected to increase by 2% while pulse and special crops production is estimated to increase by 16%. Across western Canada, overall production is estimated to have increased by 4% y/y and is expected to be 10% above the previous five-year average.
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