China might start importing corn and wheat

Dec 23, 2025

What happens with the wheat market going forward largely depends on China, says an analyst.

Canadian farmers harvested a record 40 million tonnes of wheat in 2025, including 29.3 million tonnes of spring wheat.

The good news is that exports have been surpassing last year’s record pace so far in 2025-26.

Chuck Penner, analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, thinks exports could hit a record 24 million tonnes, although it is still early days.

The problem with this year’s wheat market is that there was record production by the top seven exporters.

Minneapolis wheat futures have been relatively flat despite the global glut of the commodity, indicating that something is going on with the demand side of the ledger.

Penner said China has not been getting enough attention. There are reports of significant quality losses with China’s corn and spring wheat crops.

China’s farmers just finished harvest, and corn and wheat prices are already starting to rebound, suggesting that domestic supplies are inadequate.

“If China were to start buying corn and wheat again in a bigger way, that changes the global dynamic to quite a large degree,” he told delegates attending the Canaryseed Development Commission of Saskatchewan’s annual general meeting.

Prices are in the sideways phase of the seasonal cycle. That usually lasts until March and then prices strengthen, peaking in May.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.