Bread, pasta and breakfast cereals may seem far removed from dry fields in North America, Europe or Asia. Yet when water shortages hit several of the world's most important wheat-growing regions simultaneously, the consequences can be felt all the way to supermarket shelves and bakery aisles.
This is the conclusion of a new international study published in the journal Earth's Future. Researchers combined climate data, crop production areas and global commodity prices to investigate how drought affects wheat markets worldwide. The findings are striking: the extent of severe water scarcity alone can explain around 74 percent of annual fluctuations in global wheat prices between 2000 and 2021.
Among the co-authors is Professor and Head of Department Jørgen E. Olesen from the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University.
"We already know that climate change affects agricultural production. What is new here is that we can document a clear link between widespread drought across the globe and the prices faced by consumers and food markets," he says.
When multiple regions experience drought at the same time
The researchers developed a new indicator known as Severe Water Scarcity (SWS). It measures the proportion of global cropland experiencing drought during the months when crops are most sensitive to water shortages.
Rather than focusing solely on local drought conditions, the approach examines what happens when several major agricultural regions are affected simultaneously or in quick succession. These compound drought events are expected to become more common in a warmer climate.
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