As discussed in last issue of “Wheat Letter,” determinations from the office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on the Section 301 actions against the Chinese shipbuilding industry have helped alleviate immediate impediments to exports. As the effects of this ruling subside, U.S. wheat has become increasingly competitive. As marketing year 2025/26 begins, a combination of a weaker dollar, more relaxed balance sheet, and timely moisture through much of the U.S. wheat growing area has helped make U.S. wheat a more competitive option for importers worldwide.
Since early March 2025, U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat has maintained its position as the most competitively priced global origin. This marks the longest period of competitiveness since before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although new crop Russian and Ukrainian wheat prices have decreased aggressively in recent weeks, U.S. SRW remains within a close range of Black Sea supplies.
U.S. Gulf HRW also had a competitive moment. During its peak weeks, HRW traded within $3/MT of Argentinean wheat, at parity with French wheat, and $5 per metric ton (MT) to $11/MT below Russian, Baltic, German, and Polish wheat on a Free on Board (FOB) basis.
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