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Cutting Fertilizer Use Will Cost Growers Billions: Study

Forcing fertilizer cuts to meet climate change goals will cost farmers dearly, according to a new study commissioned by Fertilizer Canada.

Undertaken by accounting firm Meyers Norris Penny (MNP) and released Monday by Ottawa-based Fertilizer Canada, the study suggests cutting fertilizer use to reduce on-farm emissions could cost growers nearly $48 billion over the next eight years.

Under Canada’s A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy, the federal government is envisioning a 30% absolute emissions reduction target for on-farm fertilizer use by the year 2030. Elsewhere, the European Union (EU) has proposed an absolute emissions reduction target and aims to achieve it through a 20% reduction of fertilizer use compared to 2020 levels.

But Fertilizer Canada – which represents manufacturers, wholesale and retail distributors of nitrogen, phosphate, potash and sulphur fertilizers – contends that any plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must be done through what it describes as sustainable agricultural intensification; an approach that allows for significant reductions in agricultural emissions “without risking Canada’s contribution to global supply of food or economic growth within the sector.”

“When the federal government announced a 30% emission reduction target for on-farm fertilizer use it did so without consulting – the provinces, the agricultural sector, or any key stakeholders – on the feasibility of such a target,” said Karen Proud, President and CEO of Fertilizer Canada. “This study shows that we need to work together to find practical and pragmatic solutions for emissions reductions, without causing economic devastation to our agricultural sector.”

The Canadian fertilizer industry is already trying to do its part to mitigate climate change through its 4R Nutrient Stewardship initiative. 4R Nutrient Stewardship is a science-based approach to nutrient management that involves applying the right source (of fertilizer) at the right rate, right time and right place. By utilizing 4R best management practices, farmers can increase yields, while also achieving verifiable reductions in emissions.

Fertilizer Canada is calling upon Ottawa to recognize 4R Nutrient Stewardship as the standard in nutrient management and a key component to achieving on-farm emissions reductions from fertilizer.

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2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid

Video: 2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid


The USDA December crop report was friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. The USDA did surprise and increase the 25/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a new record high at 3.2 billion bushels now up 12% vs. last year vs. prior at +9% vs. the export pace to date up 30% the best in 10 years even higher than 20/21! The USDA left the 25/26 U.S. soybean export pace unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. Higher global wheat supplies will remain a weight and headwind for wheat into year end and start of 2026.
Mexico is now the #1 buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans (usually China), wheat and pork!
USDA also released its long-term early projections but expect more changes by February of 2026.
Trump announces a $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package to be paid out by February 28, 2026. This helps no one but the ag banks, farm equipment companies, seed and fertilizer companies. It does prevent more farmer bushels from being sold near-term but is not bullish grain prices long-term. The Trump administration should focus on increasing U.S. domestic demand and propping up grain futures so farmers can cover their higher costs, up since COVID of 2020.
The China U.S. soybean purchase tracker now stands at 4.521 mmt or 38% of the 12 mmt promised by China at year end or is it end of February or the growing season? Why the discrepancy vs. the fact sheet. The optics are poor for the Trump administration.
After surging to contract highs U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 30+% in just 5-trading days!
Silver traded to new record highs as the debasement and de dollarization trade continued but technicals remain overbought near-term.
Soybean futures remained in correction mode after the funds went record long futures on Nov. 19 +233,000 contracts but the $10.80 support should hold into year end when the fund profit taking/liquidation comes to an end from the year end, end of month and end of quarter selling.
The U.S. Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd time by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and they will only cut one more time in 2026 and once in 20267/ but when Powell is gone next April the replacement is willing to cut more aggressively and we could see U.S. interest rates fall to 2.0% very bullish for ag and stocks as it could reignite inflation into 2027.
After 2 months of being drier than normal in Brazil the rains have finally arrived for the 1st half of December, and a record crop is still in the cards but if this pattern continues and verifies it could start to delay the harvest. Argentina after being too wet has turned dry but they are too small, compared top Brazil in the grand picture.
The Canadian dollar surged to $0.73 after better-than-expected employment data with 180,000 new jobs in the past 3-months and 3rd quarter GDP at +2.6% but this could be short-lived.
The latest CFTC report as of 11-19-2025 reported a record long fund position in soybeans at +233,000 contracts when 2026 March soybean futures peaked on 11-19-25 at $11.724/bu.