Drought, water scarcity conditions affect B.C.

Sep 29, 2022

Drought and water scarcity continues to affect the west coast, south coast and northeastern areas of B.C. that have experienced little to no rainfall over the past five weeks with continued dry weather in the forecast.

Areas under Drought Level 4 include the Fort Nelson basin, the Sunshine Coast basin, Lower Mainland basin, and the east and west Vancouver Island basins. At Drought Level 4, conditions are extremely dry and adverse effects to socio-economic or ecosystem values are likely.

Drought is a recurring feature of climate that involves reduced precipitation, such as rain, during an extended period, resulting in a water shortage.

Regions under Drought Level 3 include the eastern pacific range basin, Coldwater River basin, Kettle basin, and the South Peace, North Peace and East Peace basins. At Drought Level 3, conditions are becoming severely dry. Potentially serious ecosystem or socio-economic effects are possible in some circumstances.

All other watershed basins in B.C. are either under Drought Level 2 or Drought Level 1.

British Columbia ranks drought levels from 0 to 5, with Drought Level 5 rated as the most severe with adverse effects to socio-economic or ecosystem values being almost certain.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.