Ethanol Markets On Seasonal Upswing Anticipating Summer Driving

Apr 06, 2017

By Rick Kment

After hitting a six-month low the second week of March, April ethanol contracts gained buyer support over the rest of the month as seasonal buying moved into the market. Traders have moved into both ethanol and RBOB gasoline markets over the past several weeks as commercial buying increases ahead of the spring and summer driving season. The current price of gasoline is also likely to spark increased sales and driving activity over the next several months.

Ethanol futures have posted a 10-cent rally since hitting support levels. This has continued to spark additional follow-through buyer activity in not only ethanol markets, but all energy markets through the end of March and early April. This is expected to continue as overall inventory of ethanol and gasoline will likely be drawn down through the next couple of months. Prices are expected to remain moderate during the summer of 2017, but firm buyer support is expected during the spring months in ethanol markets, allowing for strong demand as plant capacity remains steady based on expected relatively stable corn market prices.

Gasoline Prices (By Region)


REGION	SPOT	RACK
West Coast	$1.7698	$2.1480
Midwest	$1.6805	$1.8873
East Coast	$1.5498	$1.4904
Front Month Futures Price (RBOB) $1.6792

Ethanol Prices (By Region)
REGION	SPOT	RACK
West Coast	$1.6800	$1.7698
Midwest	$1.5450	$1.6805
East Coast	$1.6450	$1.5498
Front Month Futures Price (AC) $1.5770

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This material is based upon work that is supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under agreement number 2023-38640-39573 through the North Central Region SARE program under project number ENC23-226. USDA is an equal opportunity employer and service provider. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy.