Farmer Sentiment Drifts Lower As Trade Uncertainty Hangs Over Agriculture

Farmer sentiment weakened slightly in December as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index dropped just 3 points in December to a reading of 136. Weakness in the barometer was attributable to a modest decline in producers’ long-term outlook, as the Future Expectations Index fell to 140, 4 points below a month earlier. Meanwhile, the Current Conditions Index, at 128, was unchanged from November’s reading. Angst about prospects for U.S. soybean exports amid increasing competition from Brazil contributed to a slightly weaker outlook for the future among crop producers. The December barometer survey took place from December 1-5, 2025.

Producers’ expectations for their farms’ financial performance changed little compared to November, as the financial performance index rose just 2 points to 94. Underlying the index’s small improvement was a shift toward more producers saying they expect this year’s farm financial performance to be about the same as last year’s. At a reading of 58, the Farm Capital Investment Index also increased 2 points compared to a month earlier. Although the investment index rose slightly in December, 60% of producers still said it was a bad time to make a large investment in their farms.