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Trump tariffs mean fewer machinery purchases, higher costs for farmers

Ag equipment manufacturers had hoped to see sales volumes start to recover this year from the current slump, but those high expectations have been lowered by the negative yo-yo impact of U.S. tariff rates — and those tariffs will end up costing farmers in North America more for new machinery and parts, even here in Canada.

Among the many changing justifications for those tariffs proffered by U.S. officials was the desire to re-shore manufacturing across all industries back to that country. But the widespread market uncertainty caused by the tariff war initiated be very successful in the near term.

Agco, for one, revealed it will not make any immediate major changes to its global manufacturing footprint despite — or, ironically, because of — the U.S. tariffs.

During a quarterly earnings call in early May, Agco CEO Eric Hansotia said the company regularly evaluates where best to manufacture equipment. But it’s holding off making any significant changes for now.

“We’ve looked at that even before the tariffs. We actually look at it every year for our overall footprint, to understand what market demand is looking like and where is the best place to produce. It’s a natural thing we do annually.

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.