By Zippy Duvall
Every farmer knows that when you buy a piece of equipment, you need to take a close look under the hood. Something may look nice on the surface, but that rarely gives you a complete picture.
It’s the same story for the farm economy. Recently released farm income numbers look good at first glance, but on closer inspection, there is a lot of concerning information coming out of farm country.
Net farm income is forecasted to be $179.8 billion for 2025—an increase of $52 billion from 2024. That looks like a win. But much of the increase is driven by livestock markets and disaster aid. Years of drought took a toll on cattle herds, and now there is pressure from the New World screwworm. It’s caused the supply of beef to tighten while demand remains strong, so ranchers with cattle could do well. Poultry and hogs have rebounded, after suffering some of their worst losses in history during the past two years. These are positive developments for livestock farmers, but they represent less than half of farmers.
Assistance for losses in 2023 and 2024 accounts for $41 billion in income. On the surface, that inflates income for 2025, but in reality, this aid is making up for disasters from the previous two years. I can tell you there are many farmers who ended in the red those years.
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