Farmer Sentiment Improves in April Despite Ongoing Trade Disputes

Farmer sentiment improved in April as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed 8 points to a reading of 148. The improvement in farmers’ sentiment was bolstered by increases in both the Index of Current Conditions, which rose 9 points to 141, and the Index of Future Expectations, which rose 8 points to 152. Somewhat surprisingly, this month’s improvement in farmer sentiment occurred despite ongoing trade disputes with many of U.S. agriculture’s largest trading partners, including Mexico, Canada and China. However, producers responding to the April survey overwhelmingly reported that they expect the increased use of tariffs by the U.S. to prove beneficial to the U.S. agricultural economy in the long run, which was reflected in the Future Expectations Index‘s strengthening. The April barometer survey took place from April 14-21, 2025.

The Farm Capital Investment Index at 61 was 7 points higher in April than in March, reaching the highest investment index reading since May 2021. There was a marked shift in the investment index following the November 2024 election. From May through October 2024, the investment index averaged a reading of 36, while from November 2024 through April 2025, the average index value was 54 — 50% higher than during the preceding six months. This month, one out of four respondents said it was a good time to make large investments, nearly double the percentage of respondents who said it was a good time to invest when surveyed from May through October of last year.

Although 25% of respondents this month reported that it’s a good time to invest, nearly two-thirds of producers in this month’s survey still said it was a bad time to invest, and that group’s view appears to be the driver behind weak new farm equipment sales so far in 2025. For example, the Association of Equipment Manufacturers reported that first-quarter 2025 sales of tractors over 100 horsepower declined 19% compared to 2024’s first quarter, while new combine sales fell 38% below a year earlier.