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Just a day or two away is one of the more unusual USDA crop reporting dates. At noon eastern time on June 30th we will get the regular “stocks” report along with the highly anticipated annual “acres” report. This acres report will be the first official indication on how many spring crop acres the U.S. planted in 2017. As this report approaches, we can expect to be subjected to the usual amount of noise as market pundits guess what the report says and where prices will go next.

I believe one of the primary challenges for those striving to be effective grain marketers is the almost constant flow of information. Sometimes additional information is useful. More often than not I feel the more information we crave the less action we take. Additionally, we tend to listen to those that tell us what we want to hear.

Given that nothing is guaranteed, and that growing season weather may be the biggest indicator of grain prices; I offer the following two charts.

I share these charts for a couple reasons;

  • I like charts
  • the data covers a relatively long period
  • there is what appears to be a clear pattern to prices.
  • The way I interpret the above price pattern is that once the acres are known to the market prices will drift lower into the next storage season.

The above prices are from the CME so need to be adjusted for our local basis. However, the lesson remains. Buyers tend to bid prices up when the risk is greatest to them (before the crop is planted). After that it is all about growing season weather.

Personally, I do not enjoy gambling on weather in the short or long term.

What is your guess on 2017 planted acres for the crops affecting your business?

Where do you believe prices will go next?

Source: psu.edu


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The FCDC and AgSmart Bring Plant Breeding to a Wider Audience

Video: The FCDC and AgSmart Bring Plant Breeding to a Wider Audience

In the vast prairies of Alberta, Olds College’s Field Crop Development Centre (FCDC) stands as a beacon of innovation and research in the agricultural world. The institution has become a key player in advancing agricultural technologies and practices. The FCDC’s commitment to applied research has driven them to seek effective means of disseminating their findings and creating a positive impact on the farming community.

One such avenue that aligns with their mission is AgSmart, an event dedicated to showcasing cutting-edge agricultural technologies. The coming together of the FCDC’s annual Field Day and Ag Smart has proved to be a natural fit, fostering a synergy that benefits both parties and propels the agriculture industry forward. The FCDC Field Day took part in conjunction with AgSmart for the first time this week on Aug. 1-2 in Olds, Alta. FCDC Program Director Kofi Agblor and Olds College VP of Development Todd Ormann sat down for an interview with Marc Zienkiewicz to discuss the significance of the two events taking part together and what the future holds.

The Intersection of Research and Technology The essence of the FCDC lies in its dedication to plant breeding and new seed varieties, particularly barley and triticale. While conducting research is essential, it becomes meaningful when its benefits are shared with the wider community. This is where AgSmart steps in, providing a key venue for the FCDC to showcase their research. This union between research and technology creates a holistic and enriching experience for farmers, ranchers, and industry professionals, the pair said.

Seeds as Technology For the FCDC, the partnership with AgSmart goes beyond mere event collaboration. It is about creating an environment that bridges the gap between seeds and smart technology, Ormann said. The college believes that for technology to truly revolutionize agriculture, it must begin with a strong foundation — high-quality seeds. As the saying goes, “it all starts with a seed.” To demonstrate this critical aspect, the collaboration aims to showcase the seed value chain as an integral part of the smartphone.

The Birth of a Powerful Alliance The idea of joining forces emerged when staff realized the potential synergy between AgSmart and the FCDC Field Day. With just a few days separating the two events, a proposal was put forward to merge them. The marketing and communications teams from both sides worked seamlessly to ensure the essence of both events remained intact, creating a powerful alliance that leverages the strengths of each, Agblor said.

Driving Advancements in Breeding For Agblor, the partnership with AgSmart has tremendous potential to drive advancements in breeding and other technology. With technologies like drones and imaging becoming integral to phenotyping, breeding is no longer confined to vast fields to assess thousands of plants manually. Instead, it benefits from the data-rich insights brought about by smart technologies. These advancements make breeding more efficient, precise, and instrumental in shaping the future of agriculture.

Overcoming Challenges Together While the partnership between Olds College and Ag Smart has been a resounding success, there are challenges on the horizon. Securing stable funding for long-term breeding initiatives is crucial to sustain progress. The college is committed to navigating these challenges and investing in agriculture’s future sustainably, Agblor said.