As the global pork industry works to rebalance supply and demand, production is expected to decline, trade is likely to remain volatile, and herd health will continue to face ongoing challenges. According to the latest RaboResearch report, Global Pork Quarterly Q1 2026, supply will remain high in the first quarter of the year weighing on prices, but an anticipated downturn later in the year may support a recovery.
Lead authors Chenjun Pan and Christine McCracken, both senior analysts – animal protein for RaboResearch, expect the global sow herd to decline in 2026 as China targets a 1 million head reduction to address oversupply. Biosecurity issues will continue to impact rebuilding in the U.S., while the EU contends with African swine fever outbreaks and China’s anti-dumping duties.
Pork supply is expected to remain sufficient in the first half of 2026, with tighter supply driving a price rebound in 2H. Trade volatility is projected to persist as countries adjust import policies. For example, Mexico is introducing an import quota to non-FTA suppliers and launching anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into U.S. pork, while Japan and the Philippines still have a ban on Spanish pork due to ASF concerns.
ASF and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome continue to challenge herd health globally, impacting production recovery.
For Q1 2026 and beyond, Pan and McCracken say to also watch for favorable feed grain prices continuing, a tight global beef supply creating opportunities for pork consumption and new tools, such as AI, reducing labor costs and increasing efficiency.
As for the U.S., high costs for expansion, permitting challenges and disease pressures will most likely limit herd expansion this year. With a slight growth in pigs per litter in the December Hogs and Pigs report, heavier weights have filled the gap. RaboResearch projects a 0.7% YOY increase in pork production in 2026.
The analysts expect prices to remain steady due to limited supply growth and solid retail demand on tighter beef supplies. Pork exports are anticipated to finish 2025 flat, with 2% growth in 2026.
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