The International Energy Agency (IEA) report on petrochemicals provides unique insight into the future of the chemical sector following current trends and based on the clean technology scenario.
Petrochemicals, substances derived from oil and gas, are vital in our modern society. From plastic packaging to clothing, food production, digital devices and transportation, plastics and fertilizers make up the majority of petrochemical products that we use regularly. The petrochemical sector is the largest industrial consumer of oil and gas, accounting for 14% and 8% of the total primary demand of each respectively (or 13 million barrels per day [mb/d] of oil and 10.6 trillion cubic feet [tcf] of natural gas).
The International Energy Agency (IEA) study released this month explains the circumstances of the petrochemical industry today and provides two scenarios as to how it might develop to 2050.
The analysis, based on established trends or the reference technology scenario (RTS), projects that by 2030, the chemical sector would account for a third of the nearly 10 mb/d growth of oil and about 7% of the 30 tcf natural gas growth in the same period. The sector’s production of chemicals will exceed 1 billion tonnes in 2050, comparable to the same magnitude of crude steel and cement production. In looking at the environmental impacts, direct carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions would increase by a third between 2017 and 2050. Increases in air pollution, water demand and water pollution from plastic waste would also be possible without improvements in management.
The report provides a clean technology scenario (CTS) which aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, embracing pathways to reduce environmental impacts of petrochemicals. With increased plastic recycling, demand for primary chemicals is 4% and 13% lower than the 2030 and 2050 RTS scenarios. Air pollution, direct CO2 emissions and water demand are greatly reduced by 90%, 60% and 30% respectively than in the reference technology scenario.
The full report includes details on the various petrochemical products, as well as effecting the transition and the top ten production and use and disposal recommendations.
Input from governments, industry and other key stakeholders was sought to bring the sector the attention it deserves in the global energy policy debate.