IGC Trims 2026-27 Global Grains Production Estimate from March

Apr 24, 2026

The International Grain Council has trimmed its 2026-27 global grains production forecast from last month, noting uncertainties surrounding fertilizer.

In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged new-crop total grains production (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.414 billion tonnes. That’s down 3 million from the agency’s March estimate and below the upwardly revised 2025-26 forecast of 2.474 billion, although still the second largest on record.

Expected 2026-27 global wheat output was lowered 1 million tonnes from last month to 821 million, further below 845 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, corn production was dropped 3 million tonnes from March to 1.3 billion tonnes, versus 1.324 billion in 2025-26.

“Concerns about fertilizer affordability and application decisions have added to uncertainties about the 2026-27 cropping outlook, including in parts of the southern hemisphere, where upcoming requirements may not be fully covered,” the IGC said.

Despite this month’s lower production, the IGC raised its 2026-27 global grains ending stocks forecast by 6 million tonnes from March to 615 million, but that remains well down from 638 million for the previous year. Among major exporters, total grains ending stocks for 2026-27 are seen this month at 160 million tonnes, down from 161 million in March and 173 million a year earlier.

At 284 million tonnes, forecasted world wheat ending stocks for 2026-27 are up 8 million tonnes from March but down from 298 million in 2025-26. World corn ending stocks were lowered 2 million tonnes from last month to 292 million tonnes, compared to 307 million for 2025-26.

On the old-crop side, the IGC raised its total world grains production forecast by 4 million tonnes from last month to 2.474 billion, thanks mainly to an upwardly revised Argentina corn crop. Ending stocks for 2025-26 were raised 6 million tonnes from March to 638 million.

Click here to see more...

Video: Western Canadian Agriculture: Hard Times Made the World's Best Farmers

Western Canadian agriculture produced the most advanced farmers in the world not through abundance but through adversity. The crow rate fell. The wheat price went nowhere. The brown envelopes stopped.

When the subsidies disappeared, the bad farmers left and the good ones stayed. And the ones who stayed could not just grow wheat anymore. They started growing lentils and canola and peas and flax and faba beans. They built crop rotation. They got serious about agronomy because there was no government backstop. That process produced the Western Canadian agriculture Dennis Bulani describes in this clip: the most advanced, most educated farming culture in the world.

His contrast with Iowa corn and soybean farmers is sharp. At a DeKalb farmer meeting in Okoboji, Iowa, he asked what crop rotation they ran. Beans on corn stubble, corn on bean stubble. How do you fertilize? The co-op agronomist handles it. Have you considered other crops? No need. We make so much money on corn and soybeans. Western Canadian agriculture was never allowed that comfort. And now those Iowa farmers are watching soybean markets lock up with China and corn prices slide, and they do not have the agronomy knowledge or the research base to pivot. Western Canadian farmers adapted on a dime because they had done it before.

Dennis also makes the case that Western Canadian agriculture keeps adapting in real time. Low commodity prices over the past year have pushed growers to look seriously at precision spot-spray technology. He knows a neighbor who bought a sprayer with the seeing-eye system and sprayed only 80 out of 320 acres. As a chemical retailer Dennis acknowledges that will affect his sales. He supports it anyway, because if it advances Canadian agriculture and makes farmers money, that is a good outcome.

The lesson Dennis draws from the tale of two farms: continuous improvement is the only durable strategy. When canola was $22 a bushel some growers went to Arizona instead of the Crop Production Show. When the price came down those same growers came back to the research and the discipline. Products do not go on Rack Petroleum's shelves unless they pass a replicated trial first. That is what Western Canadian agriculture built through hard times: farmers who do the work whether the times demand it or not.

Dennis Bulani is CEO of Rack Petroleum and Ultimate Yield in Biggar, Saskatchewan. Dan Aberhart hosts GTF Productions, Western Canadian Agriculture's foremost live briefing platform and its foremost AI training platform for ag operators