The International Grain Council has trimmed its 2026-27 global grains production forecast from last month, noting uncertainties surrounding fertilizer.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged new-crop total grains production (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.414 billion tonnes. That’s down 3 million from the agency’s March estimate and below the upwardly revised 2025-26 forecast of 2.474 billion, although still the second largest on record.
Expected 2026-27 global wheat output was lowered 1 million tonnes from last month to 821 million, further below 845 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, corn production was dropped 3 million tonnes from March to 1.3 billion tonnes, versus 1.324 billion in 2025-26.
“Concerns about fertilizer affordability and application decisions have added to uncertainties about the 2026-27 cropping outlook, including in parts of the southern hemisphere, where upcoming requirements may not be fully covered,” the IGC said.
Despite this month’s lower production, the IGC raised its 2026-27 global grains ending stocks forecast by 6 million tonnes from March to 615 million, but that remains well down from 638 million for the previous year. Among major exporters, total grains ending stocks for 2026-27 are seen this month at 160 million tonnes, down from 161 million in March and 173 million a year earlier.
At 284 million tonnes, forecasted world wheat ending stocks for 2026-27 are up 8 million tonnes from March but down from 298 million in 2025-26. World corn ending stocks were lowered 2 million tonnes from last month to 292 million tonnes, compared to 307 million for 2025-26.
On the old-crop side, the IGC raised its total world grains production forecast by 4 million tonnes from last month to 2.474 billion, thanks mainly to an upwardly revised Argentina corn crop. Ending stocks for 2025-26 were raised 6 million tonnes from March to 638 million.
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