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Optimism In The Durum Market

Producers taking part in the recent Durum Summit in Swift Current learned there’s reason for optimism going forward with everything from the breeding side to the marketing side.
 
While 2019 was a challenging year, and quality of the crop is quite variable, we should see some good marketing opportunities ahead.
 
Neil Townsend with FarmLink Marketing Solutions thinks a key market to watch for in the last quarter of the marketing year will be the US.
 
“If they kind of perceive that their crop is not getting off to a good start or plantings are not where they want them to be or the weather conditions are not, they might increase their buying phase for our ending stocks and even take more ownership of potential new products at probably pretty strong prices.”
 
He thinks we’ll also see some good market opportunities going into Europe, Italy and Turkey.
 
Townsend says when you look at some of our key durum markets and you take a slightly longer view to say 2030 or 2050 we continue to see more marketing opportunities in durum.
 
“The countries that are durum markets, they still have tangible population growth, Algeria and Turkey, Morocco, even the United States. Whereas, a lot of countries were exporting other products to they have more of the reverse demographics going on. Where people are getting older, and are starting to consume less, there are just fewer people.”
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Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”

Video: Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”


After a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump?
12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum.
U.S. supreme court could rule against Trumps tariffs, but the Trump administration does have a plan B.
U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history at 38 days.
But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively.
The funds continued their selling in live and feeder cattle futures on continued fears that the Trump administration want to lower U.S. beef prices. The fundamentals have not changed, only market psychology has.
Stocks markets continue to worry about a weak U.S. job market, but you can blame ChatGPT for that. In the future, we will have a more efficient, productive and growing economy with a higher unemployment rate until we have more skilled AI workers.
After 34 new record highs in the S & P 500 and 124 new records in the NASDAQ in 2025 we are back to a correction and investor profit taking as AI valuations may have gotten too stretched near-term ahead of NVDA’s 3rd quarter earnings announcement on Nov. 19th. But this is not an AI bubble.
75% of Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk!
It has rained in South America in the last 7 days, but both the American and European models agree that Central Brazil remains dry in the next 14-days!