Big Risks Dampen Price Signals for 2026 Crop
This is the time of year when new-crop bids for pulses usually start showing up, but not always. It’s not just the actual price that signals how urgently buyers are looking to lock in acres; the timing of new-crop bids is also an indicator.
For example, I recall years when new-crop bids for peas or lentils already started to show up in October, almost a year before the next crop is harvested. That happened when pea and lentil supplies were very short and importers wanted to ensure they would have access to next year’s crops.
In general though, the first new-crop bids are often seen in late December or early January. One rule of thumb some people use is the Saskatoon Crop Production Show in mid-January as the “real start” of the contracting season. But this year, it seems that new-crop bids are even scarcer than usual, with a few possible reasons.
The first is that overseas buyers aren’t very concerned about locking in next year’s supplies. Big 2025 pulse crops in Canada and elsewhere have created a general feeling of heaviness in the market, reducing the sense of urgency. This also means 2025/26 ending stocks will be historically large; in some cases, record high. This means that even if acres and production are reduced in 2026, next year’s supplies could remain comfortable.
In addition, pulse production has expanded in several other countries that have become larger export competitors with Canada. Importers have more options and aren’t as dependent on Canadian production as in the past. Thus, there’s less concern about having to “buy acres” in western Canada.
The added element this year is the ongoing risk of trade actions that could cause sharp changes in pulse markets. In the past 12 months, import tariffs were imposed on peas by Canada’s two largest customers with a large impact on prices. More Indian tariffs on lentil imports are possible in the coming months. Of course, reduced or eliminated tariffs are also a possibility, but the odds of that type of positive development are very hard to gauge. In any case, the risks of a large swing in the market could be discouraging traders from issuing new-crop bids.
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