Pea, Lentil Outlooks Now Less Heavy

Dec 20, 2024

Canadian dry pea and lentil ending stocks will still be heavier in 2024-25 compared to a year earlier, just not as heavy as earlier forecast.

Updated supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada on Thursday pegged pea ending stocks for the current marketing year at 325,000 tonnes. That is down from the November projection of 450,000 but still up from 299,000 in 2023-24. Similarly, lentil ending stocks, at 350,000 tonnes, were revised down from 475,000 in November but remain up sharply from 165,000 the previous year.

The downward revisions in the ending stocks estimates for both crops from last month reflect Statistics Canada’s Dec. 5 crop production report. That report lowered this year’s pea crop to 2.997 million tonnes from the federal agency’s previous estimate in September of 3.16 million, while lentil output was dropped to 2.431 million tonnes from 2.593 million.

StatsCan did trim expected domestic use for both peas and lentils from last month. However, projected exports were left steady at 2.4 million and 2.1 million tonnes, respectively, leaving most of the impact of the smaller crops to be reflected in lower ending stocks.

At $425/tonne, the 2024-25 average expected pea price was revised up $20 from November but remains down from $460 a year earlier. The average lentil price, at $885/tonne, is up $35 from November but down from $1,000 in 2023-24.

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