Black Sea Disruptions Shift Pulse Demand Toward Canada
Over the past several years, Russia has grown into one of Canada’s largest competitors in pulse markets, especially for yellow peas into China and India, along with growing volumes of lentils and chickpeas moving into Turkey and South Asia. That’s what makes the current barriers to shipping out of the Black Sea region so important for the year ahead. The situation could change quickly, but for now the disruptions are limiting movement from two major exporters at the very time importers are lining up new-crop coverage. The early market signals suggest that demand is starting to shift toward Canada.
The disruptions are landing in a year when pea supplies were already tightening. Production among major exporters is forecast just under 10.0 mln tonnes, down almost 1.5 mln tonnes from last year’s peak, with the largest declines in Canada and Russia. Effective export availability will shrink even more than the production numbers suggest: France has become a much smaller exporter in recent years, US volumes are limited by changes to food aid policy, and Australia typically ships less than half of its modest pea crop. Take Black Sea movement out of that picture, even partially, and the remaining exportable supplies of yellow peas become much more concentrated in western Canada.
The clearest signal is coming from India. Yellow pea prices in Mumbai jumped more than US$50 per tonne in late August to their highest levels since mid-2024, with Kanpur values following. Notably, other Indian pulse prices haven’t moved the same way, which suggests this isn’t about India’s own crops – it looks like concern about access to supplies from Canada and Russia, the two origins that dominate its pea imports. China tells a similar story: it imported nearly 300,000 tonnes of peas in July, double the 5-year average for the month, with Russia the largest origin at just over 151,000 tonnes and Canada close behind. If Black Sea movement stays constrained, a large share of that Russian business will be looking for a new home.
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