There is a lot to look forward to, as a positive outlook was the overarching theme for those who attended the 48th annual Saskatchewan Pork Industry in Saskatoon.
This year’s symposium attracted more than 300 guests from across Canada and the U.S., and more than 25 exhibitors in the trade show area.
“There’s a lot of confidence and a lot of optimism in the way that everyone is looking at the industry over the next couple of years,” said Steve Seto, Communications and Marketing Coordinator, Sask Pork. “It’s an opportunity for producers across the province to come together, network, gain new information, refresh themselves on old information, see what’s new and developing within the industry, then take that knowledge back to the farm.”
Trade, more than tariffs, driving market impacts
Brett Stuart President, Global AgriTrends spoke about current market impacts during his keynote address.
“We’re in a good spot,” he said. “We had tough years in the industry in 2023 and 2024, and losses accrued quickly. But, if you look at where we are at today, hog farmers are making money. Using the U.S. hog futures as a forecast, we should see hog producers profitable right on through to the end of 2026.”
Stuart pointed out that, despite the rhetoric, most of agriculture has escaped significant impact from U.S. tariffs.
“We’ve all been front row participants of President Trump’s trade agenda as, for the past year, we’ve heard the rhetoric about tariffs and tariffs have come on, tariffs have been reduced and put back on. Bottom line, I would say, is, I think Trump’s agenda has pretty much rolled out on tariffs,” he said. “The impact on agriculture, I would say, has been quite minimal compared to what we thought it could be. You can look at the U.S. and Canada; our agricultural trade is still pretty much all tariff-free. The one industry that’s been affected is Brazil. Brazil’s beef to the U.S. faces a 76 per cent tariff. That has stopped most of that from coming into the U.S. but outside of Brazilian beef, we really haven’t seen much of an impact.”
Stuart added that the 25 per cent tariff imposed in March on Canadian goods headed south, which was then raised to 35 per cent in August, only applies to products not covered by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico (CUSMA) or U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) Agreement, which today accounts for only about 15 per cent of trade with the U.S. and doesn’t impact agriculture.
“Canada’s stand on supply management could be a factor in the upcoming renegotiation of USMCA. I don’t see a real reason where something would need to change,” he said. “I would expect that, everything being normal, we would just renew that plan going forward.”
Stuart cautioned, however, that President Trump has been vocal in the past about Canadian poultry and dairy so, we could go back to the mat over poultry and dairy and supply management. Stuart expects the wild card will be the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of the legality of Trump’s imposition of tariffs, so there is a possibility the President could lose his authority to impose tariffs.
“As early as maybe even January-February, we’ll find out the Supreme Court’s ruling and that ruling will stand,” said Stuart.
Globally, Stuart noted President Trump was recently in Southeast Asia, where he signed deals with four countries: Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand. Trump also announced a deal with China that removes the retaliation tariffs.
“That pretty much takes us back, maybe to par with where we were,” said Stuart. He added that U.S. beef prices are high, and we’re going to have record beef imports on a year that we impose tariffs and based on the U.S. hog futures, we should see hog producers profitable right on through to the end of 2026, based on affordable grain prices and decent demand.
Click here to see more...