The March 1 USDA Hogs and Pigs report came in much different than analysts expected. Analysts create estimates based on what the Hogs and Pigs report survey showed in the previous quarter.
“When the USDA makes revisions like they did, they do so because of the numbers that came to market,” explains Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting Group. “What the surveys said in September and December ended up being overly optimistic, and that’s why you had a miss.”
There are always revisions to the survey information, points out John Nalivka of Sterling Marketing, Inc. The Dec. 1 Hogs and Pigs Report released on Dec. 23, 2024, indicated the All Hogs and Pigs Inventory was 75.845 million head, up 1% from a year earlier. The Kept for Breeding category was 6.004 million head and even with a year earlier while the surveyed total of Market Hogs was indicated to be up 1% on the Dec. 1 report.
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