Some encouraging news for farmers on fertilizer...

Jan 19, 2023

Farmers are busy pricing out and lining up crop inputs for spring seeding.

The rising cost of fertilizer and supply chain challenges has been an increasing concern for producers, especially over the last couple of years.

StoneX is a global financial services organization focusing on commercial hedging, global payments, securities, physical commodities, foreign trade and clearing and execution services.

Josh Linville, vice president of Fertilizer at StoneX says when it comes to fertilizer this year, he doesn't believe we'll see a supply shortage.

"I think the worst-case scenarios are behind us. I think there could be some in season if we wait till just in time. I think the product will be around, it just may not be at the right place at the exact right time. But the whole worry about oh there's not enough to go around, I'm no longer in that camp."

Russia still continues to reduce natural gas flows to Europe, while the demand for natural gas in Europe remains much higher than normal.

Linville says that their nitrogen production is lower, and if you lower global supplies, prices go up.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.