Sorghum’s Big Crop, Bigger Risks

The U.S. sorghum market enters 2025/26 with a bigger crop, weaker domestic demand, and uncertain access to China. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects U.S. sorghum production at 9.94 million metric tons (MMT), up nearly 14% from last year. At home, demand is wilting, with domestic use set to fall by almost a quarter. The market hinges on foreign demand, especially from China.

China’s use is expected to jump nearly 50% in 2025/26 to over 11 MMT, and imports may approach 8 MMT (USDA-ERS, 2025). On a 2019-2023 quantity average, about 72% of China’s sorghum imports came from the United States (FAO, 2025). Yet, the U.S. export rebound is far from assured. In early 2025, following the U.S.-China trade dispute, Beijing imposed duties on U.S. sorghum and suspended firms on quality grounds. Shipments to China fell more than 95% in the first half of the year.