US spring planting is still months away, but recent declines in soybean futures mean the soybean-corn price ratio is swinging more in favour of corn for 2026.
With the new-crop December corn contract settling Monday at about US$4.65/bu, and November 2026 soybeans at $10.72, that produces a ratio of 2.30, below the historical average of 2.35 - 2.5. As most farmers know, a ratio below 2.5 typically suggests more acreage will be devoted to corn compared to soybeans.
The ratio has also strengthened in favour or corn since the beginning of December, when November soybeans were trading up around $11.25, while December corn was just under $4.70. At that time, the soybean-corn ratio was sitting at 2.39.
As shown on the charts below, November 2026 soybeans have moved mostly lower throughout December, as the market has remained decidedly unimpressed with the level of Chinese purchases after a late October trade truce struck between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping was supposed to lead to China buying 12 million tonnes of American soybeans by the end of this year.
China has indeed ramped up its purchases of US soybeans, but it’s still short of the 12-million tonne target, while Trump officials have pushed the deadline back for the completion of the purchases. Meanwhile, December corn futures have churned mainly sideways so far this month.
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