Canadian farmers are projected to harvest more wheat, corn for grain, barley and oats this fall compared with last year, but less canola and soybeans, according to recent yield models using satellite technology.
To alleviate stress on farmers during the COVID-19 pandemic, Statistics Canada relied upon proven satellite technology to model preliminary crop yields and harvests for 2020. These methods have successfully been used to produce September yield estimates since 2016, and last year replaced the method used to produce the July yield estimates for Manitoba.
Farmers in parts of the Prairies had to contend with excessive rain and lower-than-average temperatures this summer, while it was hot and dry throughout most of Eastern Canada.
Wheat production expected to increase as a result of higher harvested area and yields
Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase 10.5% year over year to 35.7 million tonnes in 2020, given higher anticipated yields (+8.0% to 53.8 bushels per acre) and higher harvested area (+2.3% to 24.4 million acres).
The projected increase in wheat area is largely attributable to the durum wheat and winter wheat area remaining after winterkill, which offset the decrease in spring wheat area.
Higher yields for all types of wheat nationally are also expected to contribute to the production increase.
Wheat yield in Saskatchewan is expected to increase 3.8% to 46.1 bushels per acre in 2020, while harvested area is projected to rise 0.4%. This is anticipated to result in a 4.3% production increase to 15.8 million tonnes.
Harvested area is expected to edge up 0.2% to 7.2 million acres in Alberta, while yields are anticipated to rise 13.8% to 59.5 bushels per acre. This is projected to bring total wheat production up 14.0% year over year to 11.7 million tonnes.
Wheat production in Manitoba is projected to rise 4.2% to 5.2 million tonnes in 2020, the result of higher harvested area (+0.7% to 3.1 million acres) and higher yields (+3.5% to 61.9 bushels per acre).
Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to rise by two-thirds (+66.7% to 2.5 million tonnes) year over year, as a result of higher harvested area (+53.1%) and yields (+8.9%). The expected rise in harvested area is attributable to less winterkill because of a mild winter in the province.
Canola yields projected to increase but production to decrease as a result of lower harvested area
Nationally, canola production is expected to decline 0.4% to 19.4 million tonnes in 2020, with higher yields (+1.2% to 41.6 bushels per acre) offset by lower harvested area (-1.6% to 20.6 million acres).
Saskatchewan, the largest canola-producing province, is expected to produce 4.2% less canola in 2020, at 10.5 million tonnes. Yields are projected to decrease 0.2% to 41.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to fall 3.9%.
In Alberta, yield is expected to rise 8.9% to 43.9 bushels per acre and harvested area to decline 0.3% to 5.8 million acres, resulting in an 8.6% production increase.
Canola production in Manitoba is expected to decrease 1.9% to 3.0 million tonnes. The projected decline in yields (-6.0% to 39.5 bushels per acre) is expected to offset the increase in harvested area (+4.3% to 3.3 million acres).
Corn for grain production projected to increase as a result of higher yields
Nationally, corn for grain production is projected to rise 3.9% to 13.9 million tonnes in 2020, with an anticipated increase in yield (+7.5% to 158.2 bushels per acre) offsetting lower harvested area (-3.4% to 3.5 million acres).
In Ontario, the largest corn-for-grain-producing province, production is expected to increase 1.1% to 8.7 million tonnes, as a result of higher harvested area (+0.3% to 2.2 million acres) and yields (+0.8% to 159.6 bushels per acre).
Corn for grain production in Quebec is projected to rise 8.8% to 3.7 million tonnes. Yields in Quebec are expected to increase 15.3% to 163.1 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to fall 5.7% to 885,000 acres.
Soybean production expected to decrease
Nationally, soybean production is projected to decrease 1.4% year over year to 6.0 million tonnes in 2020, as a result of lower harvested area (-12.5% to 4.9 million acres). Yields are expected to increase 12.6% to 44.6 bushels per acre.
Farmers in Ontario are projected to produce 4.0% less soybeans in 2020, at 3.6 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to fall 8.0% to 2.8 million acres, while yield is anticipated to rise 4.5% to 46.1 bushels per acre.
In Manitoba, soybean production is projected to increase 2.6% to 1.2 million tonnes in 2020. Harvested area is expected to decrease 19.7% to 1.1 million acres, likely as a result of Manitoba farmers reducing seeded area following several years of lower yields because of dry conditions. However, yields are projected to rise 27.7% year over year to 37.3 bushels per acre this year, reversing the trend.
In Quebec, soybean production is projected to increase 14.0% to 1.2 million tonnes as a result of sharply higher yields (+16.7% to 49.7 bushels per acre), which will more than offset the projected 2.4% decrease in harvested area.
Barley and oat production projected to rise
Barley production is expected to rise 1.6% year over year to 10.5 million tonnes in 2020, driven by higher harvested area (+0.3% to 6.8 million acres) and higher yields (+1.3% to 71.7 bushels per acre).
Oat production is projected to rise 6.1% to 4.5 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to increase 6.3% to 3.1 million acres, and yields are expected to edge down 0.2% year over year to 94.8 bushels per acre in 2020.
Final production estimates for 2020 will be released on December 3, 2020.
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