Large supply of canaryseed may put pressure on prices, analyst warns

There is a big oversupply of canaryseed in Saskatchewan. Canadian production is estimated at 235-thousand tonnes, according to Statistics Canada.

That big crop is folding into last year's carryover, according to grain market analyst with Left Field Commodity Research Chuck Penner.

Penner also provided market outlooks for canola and pulse crops.

"We have this bigger crop, this biggest crop since we've had since 04-05, and we're also carrying in some larger supplies. So total supplies closer to 320,000 tons. So that's the biggest that we've had in many, many years. I'd have to go back and see that may actually be a record supplies."

The stocks-to-use chart paints a bleak picture for canaryseed prices. Stocks are over 100 per cent, meaning there is enough supply to meet not only this year's demand but "next year's demand without even growing a '26 crop", said Penner.

"It's an indication that we are looking at a situation that's going to take a couple of years to try and resolve and bring that back down to more reasonable levels."

Penner is making a cautious estimate of 130-thousand tonnes of canaryseed exports, with industry estimates as high as 150-thousand tonnes.