Agriculture Canada has raised its 2026-27 canola ending stocks forecast from last month, although the outlook is still tight overall.
In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released late Thursday afternoon, new-crop canola ending stocks were pegged at 1.319 million tonnes, up from the April estimate of 1.064 million but still well below the slightly downwardly revised 2025-26 ending stocks of 2.72 million.
Even with this month’s increase, projected 2026-27 canola ending stocks would still be the lowest in 10 years, Ag Canada said.
The higher new-crop canola ending stocks estimate is due to a 300,000-tonne reduction in this month’s export forecast, which falls to 7.5 million tonnes. The 2026-27 canola crush forecast of 13 million tonnes was left unchanged from April but remains a new record high.
In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada did note that seeding of the 2026 canola crop is off to a slow start in some parts of Western Canada due to cold and wet conditions, but it still made no change from last month to its national yield and production estimates of 39 bu/acre and 19.2 million tonnes, respectively.
Ag Canada now sees the average 2026-27 canola price at $690/tonne, up $40 from April and $5 above the previous year but still below the average of $803.
On the old-crop side, Ag Canada raised its canola export and crush forecasts by 100,000 tonnes each from last month to 8.3 million and 12.1 million. However, much of that extra demand was offset by a 150,000-tonne cut in feed, waste and dockage to 350,000.
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