By Shauna Hermel
Last year marked the seventh year of mild liquidation in the nation’s beef cow herd. While a favorable weather forecast and record profitability in the cow-calf sector suggest it’s time to expand, CattleFax’s Kevin Good said many cattlemen would like to experience a couple wet years before trusting they are out of the long-term drought cycle. The increasing age of the average producer, land values and urban sprawl have also served as headwinds slowing the rate of heifer retention.
Herd expansion, Good said, will rely on confidence the markets will stay better longer than during the cycle turn of 2014-2015. Calling today’s market a demand-driven bull market vs. the supply-driven bull market of the last cycle, the vice president of industry relations presented a supportive outlook.
While cow numbers have declined, he said, beef production is up, driven by higher carcass weights and the influx of beef-on-dairy calves.
Cow slaughter this past year was down 600,000 head, with beef cow slaughter down 500,000. The culling rate of 8.6% would typically indicate expansion occurring as producers keep cows back for an extra year. CattleFax anticipates cow slaughter to be down again, with an 8.3% culling rate, in 2026.
While producers are retaining cows, they have not kept enough heifers to rebuild, Good reported, pointing to a much slower turn and tighter supplies through the remainder of 2026 and 2027.
Anticipating producers will retain more heifers in 2026, Good said the beef herd should begin to rebuild, albeit not to the peak numbers of the last cycle.
On the dairy side, the value of the day-old calf and salvage value of the cow are playing a larger role in dairy profitability. As cow numbers decline in New Zealand and the European Union, the United States will become a bigger player in milk exports globally, supportive of a larger dairy herd.
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