Surprise! January WASDE Report Moves Corn and Soybeans Lower – Cotton Flat

Jan 19, 2026

By Adam Rabinowitz

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released with some unexpected projections. A record corn crop is even larger than expected, now projected at 17 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior month. This is a result of a record yield of 186.5 bushels per acre on a record 91.3 million harvested acres. While total use was also increased to 16.4 billion bushels, the stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 13.6%, up from 12.5% a month earlier, and up from 10.3% compared to 2024/25.

It’s been well documented in previous Southern Ag Today articles that the stocks-to-use ratio is a good predictor of corn marketing year average prices. Thus, the increase in the ratio is expected to result in a decrease in price. In fact, the corn futures market responded with an immediate sharp decline on Monday. The pre-report price of the March corn futures was $4.474/bu, which by close ended the day down 26 cents at $4.214/bu. As a result, most of the gains that had accrued in this contract since the low price of $4.122 was projected on August 12, 2025, have since been returned. The USDA did raise the marketing year price projections for 2025/26 to $4.10, although this is still down 14 cents from the 2024/25 price of $4.24.

Soybean prices were also affected by the WASDE release, with March soybean futures falling 20.2 cents from a pre-WASDE release price of $10.692/bu to $10.49/bu at close. This was on news that soybean supply for 2025/26 is 17 million bushels higher than estimated in December. Yield remained at a record 53 bushels per acre, but harvested acres increased to 80.4 million, resulting in about 9 million bushels of additional production. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 were also adjusted up about 9 million bushels since the prior month estimates. On top of supply increases, total use dropped 43 million bushels, driven largely by a 60 million bushel drop in exports due to higher production and competition from Brazil. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio increased to 8.2% for 2025/26, up from the 6.7% projected in December. The USDA also adjusted the 2025/26 marketing year average price estimate down 30 cents to $10.20/bu.

Source : ufl.edu

Video: Understanding the Basics of the Renewable Fuel Standard

On Friday, April 24, 2026, from 12 noon–1:00 ET, the Penn State Center for Agricultural and Shale Law, alongside the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture’s (PDA) Agricultural Business Development Center (ABDC), presented this webinar in the Understanding Agricultural Law Educational Series, a course designed to develop subject matter literacy and competence on fundamental issues of agricultural law for attorneys and business advisors who work with or represent agricultural or rural clients but may not necessarily specialize in agricultural law:

“Understanding the Basics of the Renewable Fuel Standard”

The Clean Air Act’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program requires transportation fuel sold in the United States to contain a minimum volume of renewable fuels such as ethanol, biodiesel, or advanced biofuels. Established by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and later expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, the RFS is implemented by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in collaboration with the Department of Energy and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

This webinar provides an overview of the legal authority and structure for the RFS program and explain how it works, including the program’s system of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) and categories of renewable fuels. Additionally, this webinar addresses EPA annual volume requirement rulemaking and associated recent legal issues.